Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
