Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
